5 Questions for 2022
A year ago, it seemed that the only questions that animated investors involved vaccines: how many vials would be manufactured, distributed, and shot into arms in 2021? Knowledge of those statistics, it seemed, would be sufficient to predict financial market and economic outcomes. The virus had other ideas. The global peak in daily cases did not arrive until the pandemic’s third year, after 9 billion vaccine doses had been administered.1
With few observers still entertaining the hope for a clear end date to COVID-19, the most critical questions today revolve around the ways households, businesses, and policymakers continue to adapt to these new realities.
Our latest report from our Head of Global Research Jason Thomas examines five global macroeconomic questions for investors to consider in the year ahead. Review the key themes Jason highlights in the report and download the full report below.
5 Questions for 2022
Should Investors Beware of a Policy Boomerang?
Source: This is based on the IMF estimate of the change in the structural deficits. IMF, October 2021 WEO Database.
Who Will Emerge as the Winners of Digital Transformation?
Source: Carlyle, BEA, December 2021. There is no guarantee any trends will continue.
Can Tech Valuations Mistake Form for Substance?
Source: Carlyle Analysis; CRSP Database. There is no guarantee any trends will continue.
How Temporary is China’s Deceleration?
Source: Carlyle, IMF DOTS; Bloomberg; China General Administration of Customs; January 2022.
Could Credit Markets’ Resilience Defy Skeptics?
Source: Carlyle Analysis of S&P LCD Database and BAML Data, January 2022.
Read 5 Questions for 2022 by Jason Thomas
ABOUT THE EXPERT
Jason Thomas is the Head of Global Research at The Carlyle Group, focusing on economic and statistical analysis of Carlyle portfolio data, asset prices and broader trends in the global economy. He is based in Washington, DC. Mr. Thomas serves as Economic Adviser to the firm’s corporate Private Equity, Real Estate and Credit Investment Committees. His research helps to identify new investment opportunities, advance strategic initiatives and corporate development, and support Carlyle investors. Prior to joining Carlyle, Mr. Thomas was Vice President, Research at the Private Equity Council. Prior to that, he served on the White House staff as Special Assistant to the President and Director for Policy Development at the National Economic Council. In this capacity, Mr. Thomas served as primary adviser to the President for public finance. Mr. Thomas received a BA from Claremont McKenna College and an MS and PhD in finance from George Washington University, where he studied as a Bank of America Foundation, Leo and Lillian Goodwin Foundation, and School of Business Fellow. Mr. Thomas has earned the chartered financial analyst designation and is a Financial Risk Manager certified by the Global Association of Risk Professionals.
1Source: Our World in Data